tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4176548427164692161.post3772207732862972264..comments2024-01-16T05:48:39.680-05:00Comments on The Tuque Souq: That elephant in the bathtub? He speaks PersianThe Tuque Souqhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10695625715741501833noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4176548427164692161.post-62971846622597976422008-12-31T13:34:00.000-05:002008-12-31T13:34:00.000-05:00Well, on the subject of Israel gaining from divisi...Well, on the subject of Israel gaining from division in the Arab world, I refer to the basic balance-of-power model for Israel existing in this region.<BR/><BR/>One could look at the history of Israel's interpretation of various regional peace processes; namely that Israel has always preferred bilateral negotiation (with Egypt, with Jordan, with Mauritania, with Qatar, even with Lebanon during the civil war) rather than sitting at the table opposite the entire Arab world (such as the 1991 Madrid Conference, or the 2002 Saudi Plan). <BR/><BR/>One could also look at various analyses of the current crisis which suggest that Israel couldn't sustain its military campaign in Gaza if the popular backlash in certain Arab countries (Egypt, Jordan) got so powerful that it threatened those regimes that have made individual peace with Israel; if those regimes toppled and the peace agreements along with them (however unlikely), that would mean a more united Arab world against Israel rather than a divided Arab world.<BR/><BR/>Naturally, in this case Israel would "lose" rather than gain, so whatever they do in Gaza they'd have to stop well short this result. Come to think of it, if this Gaza offensive results in less disunity between Hamas and Fatah, in solidarity, doesn't Israel also lose?<BR/><BR/>I'm not sure what Israel has to gain in this conflict in Gaza. Certain individuals (I'm looking at you, Ehud Barak) perhaps stand to gain. But Hamas is practically begging for a fight. That's usually not the kind of fight one wants, right? After the Hezbollah war, Israel's gotta be wary of not having a winnable scenario. <BR/><BR/>I can only begin to wonder what that is.The Tuque Souqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10695625715741501833noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4176548427164692161.post-29682447791844431522008-12-30T17:24:00.000-05:002008-12-30T17:24:00.000-05:00Love your blog, buddy.Question for you: You say, "...Love your blog, buddy.<BR/><BR/>Question for you: You say, "Who gains with this kind of division in the Arab world? Israel of course." What do you think Israel stands to gain in all of this? It's hard for me to see.<BR/><BR/>Ben in AA, MichiganAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com